Monday, July 28, 2008

Statistics

HK Population: 6.963 million
Male Population in HK: 3.298 million
Male Population Age 30-39 in HK: 477,300
Male Population Age 30-39 AND Never Married in HK:
Never Married incidence is 40% = 190,920

Male Age 30-39 AND Never Married AND English as "Usual Language" AND of Specific Ethnicities in HK:
- English as Usual Language is 1% among this male age group, including Chinese (HK & Non HK), British, Japanese, American, Canadian, Australian, Others = 1,909
- To relax the criteria, assuming I include Europeans and South Americans whose first language is not English, but second language is, and Chinese educated overseas whose English is almost a first language, then let's assume that boosts the incidence to 3% = 5727

Male Age 30-39 AND Never Married AND English as "Usual Language" AND of Specific Ethnicities AND 5'10" or above in HK:
- Reference for Average Adult Height around the World:
- Chinese (HK) men - 5'7"
- Chinese (non HK) men - 5'5 1/2"
- Australian men - 5'10"
- American men - 5'10"
- Japanese men - 5'8"
- Canadian men - 5'8 1/2"
- British men - 5'9"
Basically, apart from American and Australian, majority of men fail the height criteria. Hence incidence is roughly 10% at best =
573

Male Age 30-39 AND Never Married AND English as "Usual Language" AND of Specific Ethnicities AND 5'10" or above AND with slightly above average looks in HK:
Incidence 40% = 229

The above AND final criteria:

a) unattached (no girlfriend or a whole bunch of flings, despite above average looking, tall and in their prime): Estimated incidence 30% (a very optimistic figure)= 69

b) great personality and can make me laugh: Estimated incidence 30% = 23

c) find me attractive: Estimated incidence 30% (random number, no rationale at all) = 7

d) dare ask me out:
Estimated incidence 50% at best = 3-4

[Note: I have not placed any filters on Education/ Employment, assuming most men whose first, or close to first, language is English in HK and are of the above ethnicities are most likely educated and working.]

CONCLUSION
1. There are only 23 men in HK who fit into my search criteria (not that I need to search anymore), 7 who might also find me attractive, and 3 to 4 who might also ask me out. Yep, 3-4.

2. Perhaps the criteria I set are too ideal - though, already I have not filtered out men who don't like the beach / cannot swim / do not like the outdoors / do not enjoy good films/ cannot do math ................

3. Treasure what I found.

Thursday, July 17, 2008

Serious Research

Background & Facts
Hong Kong rainfall in the month of June 2008 was a record high in 125 years, reaching 1346.1 millimetres. Total rainfall in the first six months of 2008 was about 69% above average level.

Issues & Implications
1. Since my normal beach/swimming season began in May, sunny weekends have been extremely rare ==> I have only visited the beach 3 times for swimming (dragonboat practice not included).
2. Due to heavy and more seriously, continuous, rainfall, sea water has been heavily polluted hence unfit for swimming ==> even when there was occasional sunshine, I still could not go swimming.
3. South Bay Beach was also closed for more than half a week due to water contamination ==> leaving me with no choice but to resort to Middle Bay.
4. Beach water quality suffered everywhere in Hong Kong. Even former Grade 1* beaches, such as South Bay and Turtle Cove, have dropped in their rating. As of today, the only Grade 1 beach left in Hong Kong is Hung Shing Yeh on Lamma Island.

Solution
1. Keep monitoring beach water quality and weather forecast everyday to ensure I will not miss out on a rare perfect match - Grade 1 for South Bay AND sunny periods forecasted AND 3 days after heavy rainfall.
2. Consider travelling to Lamma Island on a sunny day - 3 days after heavy rainfall - to swim in Grade 1 sea water.
2. Start planning for relocation to a tropical island.

Resources Required
Link to 2007 Annual Beach Water Quality Report
Link to Updated Beach Water Quality Report
Link to Yahoo HK Weather Forecast


*Beach Water Grading system of Environmental Protection Department:





(Cases p

GRADE



1

BEACH WATER QUALITY


Good

E. COLI # (COUNT PER 100ML)


<= 24

MINOR ILLNESS RATE (CASES / 1000 SWIMMERS)

Undetectable

2

Fair

25 - 180

<= 10

3

Poor

181 - 610

11 - 15

4

Very Poor

> 610 or
last reading > 1600

> 15

# Except where indicated, the E. coli level is the geometric mean E. coli level of the 5 most recent sampling occasions.
* Skin and gastrointestinal illnesses.